Bhubaneswar: When the Indian economy is constantly trying to find a way to fend the Trump tariff issue on a global front, an IMD prediction on the upcoming monsoon rain that the farmers are going to get in the seasonal agricultural production. It gives quite a relief for the people amid this chaotic situation.
The real power of the Indian economy is monsoon, because as yet about 50% of the agricultural lands are completely dependent on the rain water. The irrigation system in agriculture also depends on the monsoon rains because due to that the sources of irrigation gets retained and refilled as well as the underwater level increases time to time.
In this context, the IMD report is very important for the farmers and agriculture. As per the prediction, the percentage of monsoon rains in the current year’s rainy season from June- September is going to be above normal. A renowned private meteorological agency, the Sky MET, also predicts the similar forecast of getting normal to above normal rains this year. UK MET office, The National Centers for Environmental Prediction and The European Center for Medium- Range Weather Forecast are have also made the same forecast for Indian monsoon rains.
In this season, the weather forecast and prediction on rain is made on the basis of average rains happened through out the year in a long term. The amount of long term rains is about 868.6 mm.When this amount touches from 96-104%, then it is measured as above normal rain in a season. IMD predicts the average rain amount will go up to 105%this year whereas the Sky MET states it to be 103%. In the year 2023 the rain was below normal and in 2024 it was above normal. So if the IMD hits the bulls eye, the country will get above normal rain in the monsoon season for two consecutive years. As it has been a continuous case that the IMD predictions are being proved to be nearly accurate in the past few times, it can be believed that the country will witness above normal rains this year and it is a happy news.
Although the monsoon is getting generous this year some states like Ladakh region, Tamilnadu, North-East states would be deprived of adequate rains. Sky MET predicts the monsoon rain will be comparatively less in the first half of the season but in the second halt it will compensate completely. It can be a matter of concern for the national economy. Because the first part of the monsoon (June, July) is the time when crops like paddy, pulses and soybean seed are sowed. If the field does not get enough rain at that particular time later production gets affected. So even though there would be an above normal rain in the monsoon, but the time division might create problems for the sound production in agriculture. In 2024, the monsoon rain was satisfactory so the agricultural production had also increased up to 6.8% last year.
This time as well the production would hike if there will not be a time division in the rain fall. Then the economy of the country will also be benefited. Currency exchange will come down due to to more food grain production which will also affect the consumer currency exchange would be in control. The consumer currency exchange affects the Reserve Bank loan interest rate. If it remains in control, the Reserve bank would reduce the loan interest rate and it will bring changes in the investment and growth. Villages will be developed in terms of income due to increase in agricultural production. and that will help to provide markets to the consumers in the rural areas. With the unitary impact of all these the Indian economy would be flourished. So the forthcoming monsoon will be the decisive factor for the plannings.
-OdishaAge
